Here is a really thoughtful piece by John Schindler, an ex-intel guy, over at the XX Committee.

It describes why the American Collapse will look a whole lot like the Yugoslavian collapse and civil war.

I think he’s right.  As you read his article, you’ll see why.

 

I have a friend who left his wife for a waitress.  I realized that what happened to him is the perfect illustration of why Donald Trump is winning now, why he will disappoint people, how things will ultimately get fixed – and why all of this is so understandable.  Let me explain.

My friend married a great woman (not the one pictured).  He was a very good man.  He showered her with love.  He made a good living and provided everything she wanted.  She was very grateful.  At first.

Then she realized he was a bit of a sap.  He was a push over.  He would unconditionally love her and put up with some bad behavior.  It wasn’t anything too bad at first, but soon she realized he wouldn’t hold her accountable.  Plus, he had no where to go.  She was losing respect for him.

She started to take advantage of him.  It was a slow process, but after a while she was open about it.  He wouldn’t do anything about it.  Each time he let her get away with something, she respected him less and took even more advantage of him.

He finally did something about it.  Well, not really, but kinda.

He went to a bar.  When he walked in, a beautiful waitress smiled – a warm, true, magnetic smile – and asked, “What can I do for you?”  A naughty thought crossed his mind, but instead he said, “A beer would be great.”  She smiled that warm smile again and said, “You got it.”  She seemed genuinely happy to serve him.  She was, but it was also her job.

He could not get that smile out of his mind.  He started going to that bar.  A lot.  He got to know the waitress.  She was smart, caring, and funny.  (Oh, and hot.  Really hot.)

He found out the waitress was divorced with two kids and having a tough time making ends meet.  She liked him.  A man like him would be perfect.  She wasn’t a horrible person, but she was going to use any advantage that came her way.  And he had just come her way.

The solution was pretty obvious to my friend.  His wife was ignoring him at this point and the waitress was everything he wanted.  And the waitress needed him – not the other way around.

He started to think about leaving his wife for the waitress.  He knew in his head that it wouldn’t last with the waitress (and his friends, like me, agreed.)  But his heart was doing all the thinking.  He really, really needed to be appreciated and treated well.  He deserved it.  He was being taken advantage of and, quite simply, he didn’t have to put up with it.  He was right about that.  His friends (again, including me) had to admit that things couldn’t get much worse with his wife so he might as well roll the dice.  “But don’t expect permanent bliss,” I told him.  His smile at the thought of being with the waitress changed to a slow nod.  “I know, I know,” he said.  “But,” he stared off into the distance, “You don’t get it, man.  Things are so cold at home.  I need some warmth.  Even if it’s a bad idea.”  I nodded.  I couldn’t argue with that.

When he told his wife it was over, she was shocked.  Not that she felt rejected – she had no respect for him – but she was stunned that the chump finally figured it out and was doing something about.  Then she started thinking about all that she’d lose when he left.  Her life on the gravy train was ending.  That’s what made her mad.

She focused her anger on the waitress, the “tramp” as she called her.  Why would he leave a nice wife for a tramp?

You’ve probably figured out by now that the husband is the average Republican, the wife is the Republican Party establishment, and the waitress is Donald Trump.

I think Donald Trump will be a huge let down to Republicans if he wins the Presidency.  But – I have to admit – I can’t blame Republicans for looking to him.  They’ve been treated like crap and taken advantage of for years by the Republican Party.  Even though they know in their heads that Trump will end up disappointing them, their hearts are doing the thinking.  And I can’t argue with that.

Here’s another reason why the story of my friend so perfectly illustrates the Donald Trump situation.  In the story of my friend, there is one good person, one bad person, and one opportunist.

My friend is like many Republicans who, on average, are decent people.  They want things to work out.  They are reluctant to hold people accountable because they’re too busy to manage the relationship and, more importantly, they expect the other party to operate in good faith.  That’s how they are, so they expect others to be that way.

The wife, obviously, is bad.  She loves the gravy train, like the Republican establishment.  Enough said about that.

The waitress is more complicated.  She’s not an evil gold digger, but she sees an opportunity.  She has lots of life experience and thinks – correctly – that my friend should go into a relationship with her with his eyes open.  He shouldn’t expect permanent bliss.  She’ll bat her eyes at him, but he’s a big boy who is making a conscious decision and knows that he must live with the consequences.  She is surprised my friend never asked her the obvious question of why her first marriage broke up.  He didn’t ask, of course, because he didn’t want to know the answer.

How did things turn out?

My friend found out that, indeed, the waitress was not perfect.  She assumed he knew what the deal was and acted accordingly.  He was stunned – and devastated.  Again?  This had happened twice?  He assumed his life was over.

Nope.  He quit looking for happiness from humans and reaffirmed his faith in God.  He found a woman in the same boat.  She was also a person of faith.  They went into a relationship with their eyes wide open, and based their ultimate happiness on something higher than human beings, who will always disappoint you.  And they kept each other accountable.  They worked hard at the relationship instead of assuming everything would work out because the other person was decent.

And they’re truly happy.

This is what America needs to do.  After the tramp disappoints you, get back to your faith and work hard on a new relationship.  Don’t expect bliss.  Work to make a relationship – based on something higher – work.  And it will.

This guy is your enemy.   (During the Collapse, that is.)

He doesn’t seem like it; in fact, he looks kind of wimpy.  He’s not a jack-booted Homeland Security trooper breaking down your door to take your guns, so he can’t be a threat, right?

Wrong.  Dead wrong.  He’s a bigger threat to most of you than the government.

Of course the government will be a threat, especially in urban areas where they will congregate and hold onto power in their fiefdoms.  Gangs will also be a threat (more on that in Part 2 of this series).  My point is that the guy pictured above – the unprepared neighbor – is the one most likely to actually try to take your stuff and, if neccessary, hurt you and your family.

Who is this guy and why is he a threat?

He’s the guy who lives next to you.  Just an average guy.  Maybe you even gently tried to bring up the topic of prepping with him.  He looked at you like you were from Mars and said, a little sarcastcially, “Oh, like those people on Doomsday Preppers?”  Being a good (feminized) male in the suburbs, he thought preppers were a bunch of right-wing crazies who just had some weird fetish about (icky, icky) guns.  He had plenty of opportunities to prepare but spent his time and money on concerts, trendy clothes, and whatever else most of America thinks is more important than taking care of their families in a crisis.

Then the Collapse hits.  Very soon his high-end grocery store is out of goat cheese and the police are no longer functioning.  After the shock and total disbelief wears off, he is terrified.  Not just scared, but lose-your-mind hysterical.  He’s been awake for several days because of all the gunfire he’s hearing, the baby has been crying, and his wife has been screaming at him for hours to “do something!”  (This, of course, is a story in itself because she was the one who told him he can’t have a gun like Todd and Chloe in the 299 Days book series.)  Your unprepared neighbor is not thinking rationally.  He’s desperate.  Studies show that after about 72 hours without food, people – even “nice” ones – will do horrible things to feed themselves and their families.  He needs to shut her up, get some food, and feel safe.  He’ll do anything to make that happen.  Anything.

He remembers that conversation he had with you about “having a little bit of food in case the power goes out during the next ice storm.”  He remembers seeing you putting a gun into your car that day you went to the shooting range.  It all becomes “clear” to him: You need to give him food and a gun.  It’s only fair.  Besides, he tries to reassure himself, you are a nice guy.  You’ll help.

He walks over to your place.  He’s nervous and scared of what he’ll do.  He politely knocks on your door.  You don’t know it’s him so you don’t answer – home invasions are happening everywhere and the last thing you want to do is let anyone in.

The knocking gets louder.  Then even louder; by now, it’s pounding.  Who ever it is banging on your door is angry.

Finally, you recognize his voice.

Should you let him in?

How you answer this is a personal choice and depends on the circumstances.  However, my point is that you must recognize this guy for what he is: your enemy.  That’s kind of harsh, but here’s why.

You can’t solve his problem.

You can’t feed him and his family for the next few months or even years or guard his place all night instead of guarding your own.  You just can’t.  That was HIS job and he failed miserably.  He feels humiliated that he didn’t take care of his family – and his wife won’t stop yelling at him.  You are the reason (in his mind) that his problem isn’t getting solved.  So, instead of you being able to solve his problem, you ARE his problem.

Whether or not you let him in and give him a little food, he will start to talk to all the other neighbors who, of course, are not prepared either.  They will decide that you’re a “hoarder.”  Maybe the authorities are out looking for “hoarders” or “illegal guns” and one of the neighbors suggests that they turn you in.  You get the picture.  This guy is your enemy.

What can you do?  Two things.

First, recognize that a seemingly harmless guy like this will, indeed, be your enemy.  Recognizing this is the first – and biggest – step in successfully navigating this problem.

Second, get the hell out of that neighborhood at the first sign of the Collapse.