How many times do things turn out exactly like you think they will?  For me, not often.  Often something that I think will happen partially happens, while something else I didn’t foresee partially happens too.  Reality is a blend of what I foresee and what I didn’t see coming.  A blend.

I think the collapse will be a blend of EROL (“excessive rule of law”) and WROL (“without rule of law”).  I call it “E&WROL.”

Some in the prepping community talk about getting ready for EROL.  They (correctly) are worried about an oppressive government cracking down after a collapse.

Many in the prepping community are getting ready for WROL.  You know, looting and gangs running wild.  This is a very likely scenario.

How can we simultaneously have two things that contradict each other: too much rule of law and total lawlessness?

It happens all the time, actually.  A friend of mine has seen it.  He is a special operations soldier.  He’s seen E&WROL in Baghdad and Kabul.

Let’s look at what E&WROL would look like in America.  It starts with things like the recently passed gun laws in New York state, which make it a felony to possess most of the guns people have.  Some citizens will shoot back when the police try to take their guns.  As one New York mayor put it, there will be some “Waco-style standoffs.”  Expect lots of bloody firefights.  They will be on the news every night.

Assume that during these firefights some innocent civilians get killed, as they will.  What if some people start targeting the police as retribution?  This has already happened: Oklahoma City was retribution for Waco.  My spec ops friend has seen this retribution happen.  Houses burned.  Families of police officers killed.  Horrific things.

The police won’t take it lying down.  They will react, and react hard. (You know what happens when someone kills a cop; the killer is rarely taken alive.)  There will be some bad police who want to abuse people.  But, in my experience, the vast majority of police aren’t like that.  Instead, when confronted with retributionists trying to kill them and their families, the police will go into survival mode – like any human beings would.  They will band together.  They will “take care of business.”  You won’t want to have a “Don’t Tread on Me” sticker on your vehicle during a traffic stop.  There will be police road blocks and warrantless vehicle searches.  This is EROL.

While EROL is going on, WROL will explode.  Why?  Because the criminals know that the police are hunkered down behind barricades and trying to find retributionists.  This leaves the streets free for criminals to steal, rape, burn, and kill.  And they will.  Big time.

So I foresee simultaneous EROL and WROL.  This happens all over the world.  In fact, it’s going on right now, as you read this, in some part of the world.

What can you do?

Lay low.  Be strictly defensive.  Expect both criminals and the police to be potential problems for you, and avoid both.  Don’t go looking for fights.

Stay the hell away from everyone, except your family and the people you trust.  For the first few days or maybe weeks of the collapse, while E&WROL is unfolding, be invisible.  Don’t show off your AR-15 to the neighbor lady.  Don’t give the police a reason to suspect you.  Repel the criminals but don’t go hunting for them.  Be strictly defensive.

There will be a time for you to band together with like-minded people who want to fix things – but don’t assume that will happen on day one.  You have to live past the first few days or weeks of the collapse before you can go on to eventually fix things.  Live to fight another day.

The best way to live through the initial period is to not assume things will be exactly like you’ve planned.  If you’ve spent hours thinking about how you would go after the police, don’t do it.  If you’ve spent hours thinking about how you’ll hunt down criminals, don’t do it.

Instead, take things as they come with your primary goal being your survival.  Don’t get locked into one scenario.  Adapt.  Survive.